September 28th, 2026AD
After another afternoon in the mid-90s Monday, Hood County appears headed for its most significant weather change in months — one that could bring widespread rain, a risk of flash flooding and, finally, a substantial break from the late-season heat.
The latest National Weather Service forecast Monday afternoon continues to increase confidence in a major pattern change beginning Wednesday. An approaching upper-level storm system will tap unusually deep tropical moisture and interact with a Pacific cold front, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across North and Central Texas. The National Weather Service says heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are the primary concerns. 
For Hood County, the greatest concern is currently Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, with the heaviest rainfall most likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain chances rise sharply Wednesday and reach about 90 percent Wednesday night before remaining elevated Thursday. 
A MUCH WETTER FORECAST
The Weather Prediction Center has now placed portions of Central and North Texas in a Level 3 of 4 — Moderate Risk — for excessive rainfall Wednesday into Thursday. That category signifies a more consequential flood threat than an ordinary rainy-day forecast, with numerous flash-flood events possible within a Moderate Risk area. 
The ingredients are unusually favorable for heavy rain.
Moisture from what has been Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific is expected to become absorbed into the approaching upper-level trough. At the same time, a strengthening southerly flow will transport additional moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. NWS Fort Worth expects atmospheric moisture values around 2 to 2.2 inches — unusually high for the region — as the system approaches. 
The Weather Prediction Center similarly describes a combination of Polo’s remnant tropical moisture, Gulf moisture and a strengthening upper-level storm system. Its latest analysis warns that overlapping areas of heavy rainfall over multiple days will increase the threat of excessive rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Southern Plains. 
For Hood County, that means this is increasingly looking like more than a passing line of thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS THE KEY WINDOW
Tuesday should provide one more predominantly hot day before conditions begin changing in earnest.
By Wednesday, rain and thunderstorm chances increase significantly. The current Hood County forecast calls for a 70-percent chance of precipitation Wednesday, increasing to 90 percent Wednesday night. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Thursday retains a 70-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
The overnight timing deserves particular attention.
Heavy rain Wednesday night could affect low-water crossings, creeks and other flood-prone locations before Thursday morning’s commute. Exactly where the heaviest bands establish themselves remains uncertain, and rainfall totals can vary considerably over relatively short distances during this type of event.
Residents should therefore avoid focusing on any single projected rainfall total this far in advance. The increasingly important signal is the combination of very high atmospheric moisture, repeated thunderstorms and the possibility that heavy rain could affect the same areas more than once. 
AND THEN — FALL
The same weather system responsible for the rain should finally dislodge the persistent late-September heat.
NWS Fort Worth expects a Pacific cold front to move through North and Central Texas Friday. Behind it, afternoon temperatures across the region should fall into roughly the upper 70s to middle 80s, with overnight lows reaching the upper 50s to middle 60s. 
The change could be dramatic locally.
After highs in the 90s Monday and Tuesday, Hood County’s forecast drops into the lower 80s Thursday and middle 70s Friday. Weekend highs should remain primarily in the 70s, with nighttime temperatures falling into the lower 60s in portions of the county. 
That is roughly a 20-degree swing in afternoon temperatures in only a few days.
The cooler air will not immediately mean clear skies. Rain chances remain in the forecast Friday and Saturday as the upper-level system moves through, although precipitation should gradually become less widespread heading toward Sunday. 
WHAT HOOD COUNTY SHOULD WATCH
The forecast is still several days from the period of greatest concern, so details concerning exact rainfall amounts and the location of the heaviest bands will continue to change.
The important signals, however, are becoming clearer: widespread rainfall is increasingly likely; Wednesday night into Thursday morning currently represents the primary heavy-rain window; flash flooding is a legitimate concern; and substantially cooler weather should follow the system into the weekend. 
Residents who routinely travel roads with low-water crossings should begin paying particular attention to forecasts Wednesday and Thursday. Never drive onto a flooded roadway, even if the water appears shallow.
For anyone who has been waiting for something resembling fall, the forecast finally offers it.
First, North Texas has to get through what could be its wettest stretch in quite some time.
Hood County Express will continue monitoring National Weather Service forecasts as the system approaches and will update the forecast if the expected rainfall amounts, timing or flood threat materially change.
Hood County Express — Est’d 1/2026 🚂
Granbury, TX
89°
F / C
Mainly cloudy, breezy and humid with a couple of heavy thunderstorms; storms can bring flash flooding and damaging winds
Mon 96° 72°Tue 93° 75°Wed 89° 71°Thu 79° 65°Fri 73° 63°Sat 70° 61°Sun 78° 61°Mon 78° 60°
Precipitation
